Property Market Outlook 2012 by Ho Chin Soon

Rapid speed transportation linking key growth areas of Malaysia will propel demand for properties in locations currently deemed less desirable or accessible.

Speaking on “Property market outlook 2012” and “Why you should buy now,” at the recent Star Property Fair in Kuala Lumpur, well-known map maker, research consultant and author Ho Chin Soon pointed out key indicators to detect locations where demand for properties would likely to go up.

The foreseeable and probable factors that could affect the property market next year, include:
-the proposed high speed rail link between Greater KL to the southern tip of the peninsula
-the proposed MRT link between Singapore and Malaysia
-the stock market

 
Ho Chin Soon presenting his talk on "Property Market Outlook 2012 & Why You Should Buy NOW"at Star Property Fair 2011

MRT link
Ho highlighted the Entry Point Project (EPP) under the Economic Transformation Programme ( ETP) which will focus on new MRT lines and MRT stations.

With the completion of such transport facilities, residents will have access to almost every major development site of Greater KL where you are not able to enjoy for the time being.

The proposed MRT line will not just pass through major residential developments to your work place but will also be connected to major commercial and entertainment centres such as 1Utama shopping centre. However, such details have yet to be confirmed.

This development will be made possible when MRT Co, a government-linked company under the Ministry of Finance - overseeing the proposed MRT line - finalise details.

Citing from his book, Greater KL: The Rise of Bukit Bintang, Ho was optimistic of the further growth of Bukit Bintang, due in part to the proposed MRT stations to be built at:
Bukit Bintang-Pudu (West Bukit Bintang )
Pavilion (East Bukit Bintang)
and most importantly, an interchange station in the Kuala Lumpur International Financial district.

According to Ho, with a more convenient mode of transportation, property prices in those areas will be “healthy”.

High-speed rail
Another key factor under the Entry Point Project is the reduction in travelling time to Singapore from Greater KL via the high-speed rail. Ho envisaged that with a train travelling up to 350km per hour, one would be able to reach Johor Baru in 70 minutes.

He said high speed rail transportation will be crucial in the development of a mega region comprising Greater KL, Iskandar Malaysia in Johor and Singapore. Such a region will have a combined population that could reach 20 million. Formerly known as the Iskandar Development Region and South Johor Economic Region, the Iskandar Malaysia site is the main southern development corridor in Johor.

With charts to illustrate cross-border traffic data, Ho pointed out that up to 126,000 vehicles cross the Johor-Singapore Causeway daily where 70% of them are Singapore-registered cars.
He highlighted the fact that Singaporeans own up to 40% of the properties being constructed in Iskandar Malaysia.

Malaysia will likely experience greater spillover effects from Singaporeans travelling here, especially when the proposed rapid transit system linking Tanjung Puteri in Johor Baru to Singapore commences operations in 2018.

Compound Annual Growth Rate
On determining property value, Ho said a useful tool would be the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) calculator, essentially to calculate the annual growth rate of an investment over a period of time.

Using the calculator and the housing price index spanning 10 years - provided by Valuation and Property Services Department - Ho concluded that the best Compound Annual Growth Rate last year was surprisingly registered in Sabah with 8.06% and not Kuala Lumpur, which only came in second place, with 4.75%.

The lowest growth rate tabulated was in Johor, with minus 0.2% due to an oversupply situation in the south which depressed property prices.
In Sabah and Sarawak, it was a different scenario because people there benefited from their respective state government policy that emphasised cultivating agricultural land that brought good returns. Another factor was due to the increase in palm oil prices, and astute Sabahans used the money to invest in property.

Crash
On the price levels for various types of property in Malaysia, Ho found that condominium prices were mostly flat and stable due to ample supply. But landed property prices continued to increase and if this situation continues in 2012 than a crash in landed property prices could likely occur.

Ho said property prices would normally be on the rise if the stock market was doing well and vice versa, citing the 1997 Asian Financial crisis as an example.

Property sector to correct

The steep increases seen in the last two years expected to sputter to a halt on weak global sentiment

THE overall weak global sentiment is expected to cast a pall over the property sector, which is expected to undergo some downward correction next year, agents, property consultants and developers say, with the steep increases seen in the last two years sputtering to a halt. Virtually all segments of the property market will be affected.

International Real Estate Federation (Fiabci) Malaysia president Yeow Thit Sang says the slowdown, though gradual, will be seen in the pricing and take-up rate of all housing segments, particularly more so in the high-end category.

“Whether it is Penang or the Klang Valley, we don’t have that many multinational companies coming in to occupy some of our high-end properties. Rentals with yields of between 6% and 8% are no longer achievable,” he says.

This slower rate of growth is expected to be more apparent after the new ruling by Bank Negara kicks in. Effective Jan 1, new lending guidelines require banks to use net income to calculate the debt service ratio for loan approvals.

The new guidelines cover all consumer loan products including housing loans, personal loans, car loans, credit-card receivables and loans for the purchase of securities.
While this latest round has the objective of reducing overall household debt, it will affect the property sector, a branch manager of a local bank says.

Previous lending guidelines capped monthly mortgage repayment at 1/3 of net pay instead of gross pay. This new ruling, and the requirement to have a 30% downpayment on the third and subsequent property, introduced in 2010, will result in the banking sector being more stringent when it comes to mortgage loan approvals. The re-imposition of the real estate property tax, at 5% flat within five years of purchase, was another measure to curb speculation.

These measures, together with the global concerns over the United States and the eurozone, will affect sentiment. However, there will be opportunities in the affordable housing segment, which is part of the Government’s Economic Transformation Programme.

Says Ireka Corp Bhd executive director Lai Voon Hon: “We see strong growth potential in these ‘under-served’ sectors such as mid-market residential and commercial as well as ‘green’ developments located close to infrastructure nodes. Market movement in recent months had observed major developers acquiring parcels of land outside the Klang Valley such as in Kajang, Semenyih and Nilai which are destined to be the next “hot spots”.

“With 65% of the Malaysian population falling under 35 years old, we trust that the demand will pick up as consumer confidence recovers. Close to 10 million people are expected to work, live, learn and play in the Greater KL metropolis by 2020.

“Burgeoning young and middle-class population also means the demand for mid-market properties will remain steadfast,” Lai said, adding that the mid-market will receive strong support in terms of demand, and this will be Ireka’s primary focus in 2012.

Other developers to move into affordable housing include the Sime Darby group and Mah Sing group. Sime Darby recently launched affordable housing in Bandar Ainsdale in Seremban. Mah Sing Group Bhd, too, is moving away from high-end housing to go into the affordable housing segment.

Mah Sing group managing director and group CEO Tan Sri Leong Hoy Kum says: “The high-end sector, both landed and high-rise, will be more challenging with the RM4mil and above units taking longer to sell.”
Ireka’s Lai says the company will be developing a 28-acre freehold land in Bandar Nilai Utama, Negri Sembilan into a trendy mid-market neighbourhood, consisting of landed houses and apartments. Another five acres of prime land in Kajang will be developed into a mixed development. consisting of two mid-market apartment blocks and a retail precinct.

Ireka will also embark on a modern industrial park development on its 21-acre freehold land in the established Sungai Chua industrial area near Kajang.

Aside from these three mid-market developments, in the pipeline is the launch of its boutique hotel and serviced residences project in Jalan Kia Peng, within the Kuala Lumpur City Centre (KLCC). This 30:70 joint development project between Ireka and Aseana Properties Ltd is slated for launch in the second half of next year.

On the overall market, Lai says launches and sales take-up rate will be generally slower. However, Malaysia’s property sector (will be) resilient, he says.

Property consultant DTZ Debenham Tie Leung’s executive director Brian Koh says “properties will have to be sensibly priced” with smaller units (if they are condominiums), selling better than larger ones. DTZ will be launching Naza TTDI Sdn Bhd’s Platinum Park around the KLCC area next year.

Over in the office segment, the current glut is expected to persist into next year which will put pressure on rentals.

The overall view of property professionals is that the office market in Kuala Lumpur will remain soft next year unless the global economy recovers sufficiently to spur business expansion to take up the current supply in the city. With the eurozone the way it is, that seems unlikely.
Y. Y. Lau of YY Property Solutions expects Grade A office buildings in KL (existing and new) to face intense competition to secure tenants next year.

“Demand for prime Grade A office buildings held up well last year. But we are expecting an estimated five million sq ft of office space to come onstream in the Kuala Lumpur Commercial Business District and city fringes by end-2012, with KLCC and the Golden Triangle area providing over 90% of the new supply in the first half of next year. “In the second half, the bulk of the supply will be coming from the fringes of Kuala Lumpur.

“We opine that KL Sentral, Bangsar South and Mid Valley City will play a catch-up game in attracting eminent companies seeking MSC status and green building features, as well as conveniences in terms of availability of public transportation, ample eateries and amenities, and upgrading of corporate image. Good building quality and property management services provided are expected to attract companies to set up its businesses here,” Lau says.

Star property

Property market welcomes new group of buyers

BEGINNING tomorrow, new guidelines from Bank Negara Malaysia to curb rising household debt are going to kick in. The guidelines cover all consumer loan products including housing, personal and car loans, credit card receivables as well as loans for the purchase of securities.

Instead of loan approvals being based on gross pay, they will be based on net pay, after income tax, social security deductions and the Employees’ Provident Fund contributions. These are the three main items. The objective of this ruling is to reduce the household debt which has been on the rise.

In all likelihood, property sales will be affected but what is interesting is, how this ruling will affect an increasingly younger generation of buyers who are entering the market for the first time.
In the last 24 months, developers have seen a new group of buyers. They are young and aggressive, upbeat and have a huge appetite for risk. Many of them are in their 20s or early 30s. Many buy with joint names and they are not related to each other. They buy studio units and two-bedroom condominiums, with a built-up of between 600sq ft and 800sq ft with a price tag of averaging RM500,000. When the mortgage payment kicks in, that RM450,000 loan (based on a 10:90 scheme) will equate to a monthly repayment of about RM2,500.

A developer says this scenario is due to a combination of factors. The steep rise in property prices the last two years, coupled with the gains, have spurred this young group of buyers to take on the responsibility of shouldering this long-term commitment.

More than 10 years ago, during the stock market bull run of the 1990s, the market was on an uptrend for a good number of years before the Asian Financial Crisis hit the region. At that time, many young people, including college students, began dabbling in the stock market. Just as that period prompted young people to learn about stocks, the last two years have introduced them to another investment instrument. The difference between the two is the outlay, and the duration of that commitment with stocks needing a smaller capital and more liquid.

Developers say there are essentially two groups of young people who have entered the market in the last two years. The first group are those who, seeing the gains made by earlier purchasers, enter the market with the objective of making a quick gain. Another group ventures into the market before prices go up further and they plan to hold the property for the longer term.

A major factor that encourages this group of aggressive young buyers is the availability of easy credit. The introduction of the 10:90 schemes induces them to make the decision. Many of them hope they will be able to flip that property on completion and make that 25% to 30% gain.

For this group who are buying to flip, they may find the gains not worth the while for the simple reason that the premise of making a 25% to 30% gain is based on a rising market. Prices are today stabilising and there is a glut of high-rise condominiums.

Lawyers and property professionals say investors are unlikely to make that 20% gain going forward. Furthermore, the 5% real property gain tax will also shave off gains. In the event they are unable to off load their units fast enough, they will have to rent them out, but they may encounter another problem – a glut of condominiums and few tenants.


Star Property